Are China and the U.S. in an Aging Battle?

China and America are like two giants acting as macho adolescents on the international stage, enmeshed in a duel of increasing economic competition and hostility. At home, in contrast, they are both aging in place at a pace that renders their international bravado astoundingly impotent and foolish.

In 12 years, 30% of China will be over 60. Because of aging demographics, in 20 years their ratio of workers to dependents will drop from today’s 2.26 to 1.37. Much of the $3.1 trillion that China holds in foreign reserves will probably need to be channeled back into social programs for their aging. It is said that China will grow old before it grows rich.

In 10 years, all America’s Boomers will over 65, constituting over 21% of the population. Half do not have enough money for their retirement, 75% will have insufficient resources for their frail years. Aging is already 40% of federal spending, and will be 50% in 10 years. Medicare costs are expected to double in 10 years and already constitute one third of the national debt. In 25 years the US ratio of workers to dependents will fall from 1.9 in 2020 to 1.39 in 2050, virtually the same as China.

For both countries, unless there is a sudden and unlikely baby boom, a result of the American Baby Boom and China’s 1-child policy is that the demographics and economic consequences…